Texas El Paso

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	95.0
Current RPI:	95
Expected SOS:	79
Current SOS:	79
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	11-7
Expected Conf Record:	11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	113
Expected OOC SOS:	14

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	95.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas El Paso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	69-49	W	100%
11-15	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	72-51	L	0%
11-22	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	N	68-61	L	0%
11-23	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	N	69-48	L	0%
11-25	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	N	49-73	L	0%
11-28	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	55-54	W	100%
12-8	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	64-60	W	100%
12-17	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	60-62	L	0%
12-19	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	91-84	W	100%
12-22	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	83-61	W	100%
12-23	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	H	68-52	W	100%
1-2	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	62-58	L	0%
1-9	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	57-66	W	100%
1-12	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	H	74-63	W	100%
1-14	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	72-44	W	100%
1-16	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	45-42	L	0%
1-19	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	63-54	W	100%
1-26	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	A	67-68	W	100%
1-30	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	78-72	L	0%
2-2	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	H	62-50	W	100%
2-6	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	H	65-53	W	100%
2-9	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	H	70-74	L	0%
2-13	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	79-61	L	0%
2-16	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	H	73-58	W	100%
2-20	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	A	45-39	L	0%
2-23	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	55-51	L	0%
2-27	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	63-53	W	100%
3-2	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	56-67	W	100%
3-5	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	H	54-56	L	0%
3-9	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	63-76	W	100%
3-14	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	N	80-69	W	100%
3-15	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	N	85-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas El Paso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas El Paso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas El Paso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas El Paso	CUSA	26.26	26.26	53.73	53.73	1.96	1.96
Houston	CUSA	5.33	5.33	62.96	62.96	1.38	1.38
Rice	CUSA	3.86	3.86	14.81	14.81	-2.72	-2.72
Tulsa	CUSA	3.84	3.84	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Tulane	CUSA	3.84	3.84	60.00	60.00	0.77	0.77
Southern Methodist	CUSA	3.79	3.79	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	3.78	3.78	70.00	70.00	1.51	1.51
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.25	3.25	70.97	70.97	1.36	1.36
Memphis	CUSA	2.33	2.33	87.88	87.88	1.76	1.76
UAB	CUSA	2.25	2.25	45.16	45.16	-0.22	-0.22
Marshall	CUSA	2.20	2.20	40.00	40.00	-0.44	-0.44
East Carolina	CUSA	2.19	2.19	56.00	56.00	0.26	0.26
Central Florida	CUSA	2.15	2.15	64.29	64.29	0.61	0.61
Oregon	P12	1.71	1.71	78.79	78.79	0.99	0.99
Idaho	WAC	1.70	1.70	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.69	1.69	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Arizona	P12	1.68	1.68	77.42	77.42	0.92	0.92
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.67	1.67	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.66	1.66	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Nebraska	B10	1.63	1.63	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	1.63	1.63	73.33	73.33	0.76	0.76
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.61	1.61	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Oklahoma	B12	1.59	1.59	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Clemson	ACC	1.59	1.59	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.59	1.59	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Texas Christian	B12	0.31	0.31	32.26	32.26	-0.11	-0.11
Chicago St.	GWC	0.29	0.29	25.00	25.00	-0.14	-0.14
Texas St.	WAC	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.25	0.25	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.24	0.24	85.29	85.29	0.17	0.17
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Denver	WAC	0.22	0.22	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Utah	P12	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.20	0.20	80.65	80.65	0.12	0.12
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.18	0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.18	-0.18
Missouri St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.17	0.17	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.15	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	85.19	85.19	0.09	0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Fresno St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01